The RMB exchange rate is expected to be strong shock

On Friday (June 8th), the RMB fell more than 100 points against the US dollar at sight, but the previous four trading days had risen by four companies, which rose by 72 points this week and ended three weeks.

Since the end of May, the dollar index has fallen steadily since the end of May, providing external conditions for a rebound in the RMB exchange rate. In the future, the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to fluctuate with the US dollar. However, the probability of a short-term fall in the US dollar, as the Fed is in place, is relatively strong in the near future. Perhaps greater, the RMB exchange rate is expected to be strong and volatile.

RMB stabilizes bounce

In June 8th, the central price of the RMB fell to 6.40 key points again, the 84 basis points of the day adjusted to 6.4003, the end of the three days before the end of a continuous rise, but the week is still up 75 basis points.

Correspondingly, yesterday, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was also low with the middle price. It was weak in the day, touched the low of 6.4123, closed at 6.4097 at 16:30, and fell 164 points over the last trading day. The RMB rose 46 points, 108 points, 59 points and 23 points against the dollar in the first four trading days of the week, and the week also rose 72 points to the end of the three week.

Market participants pointed out that the overall stabilization of the RMB exchange rate this week is mainly affected by the continued decline of the US dollar index. Since breaking through the 95 pass in May 29th, the US dollar index has returned to a high level, closing at 93.4379 as of June 7th, with a total decrease of 1.5% in the 7 trading days. In contrast, as investors bet the ECB would suggest ending the stimulus, the euro rebounded from 1.1539 to 1.18, reaching a three - week high to 1.1839, with a cumulative rise of 2.25%.

Large probability of two-way fluctuation

Market people pointed out that, as the European and Japanese economic recovery is slowing down, Global trade uncertainty is still more, the dollar index may continue to rise after the completion of a brief recuperation, so the short-term RMB still has a certain value of devaluation. However, benefited from the support of domestic economic fundamentals and the balance of foreign exchange supply and demand, there is no obvious devaluation pressure on the RMB. The overall stabilization of the RMB against the US dollar and the increase of the two-way oscillation interval are still the approximate events.

The latest foreign exchange reserve data released by the people's Bank of China showed that by the end of 5 2018, China's foreign exchange reserve scale was 31106 billion US dollars, a drop of 14 billion 200 million US dollars at the end of 4 month, and a decrease of 0.46%.

The decline of foreign exchange reserves in May is mainly affected by valuation. In view of the oversea major treasury bond price rise partly offset the drag of remittance gains and losses in May, the estimated core reserve increment continued in March and April, with a small increase or decrease in the vicinity of 0, showing that there is no capital outflow in China.  Pressure.

"In the medium term, with the US dollar index returning to a low level, the US dollar exchange rate at the end of the year will be judged at 6.3." The macro - research team of Hongyuan Hongyuan Securities said that the trend of the rising trend of the RMB exchange rate to a basket of exchange rates will remain unchanged in the context of significant domestic risk reduction and basic economic stability.

At the same time, the Li Yong team in Northeast China said that the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar will not depreciate substantially and the central bank gradually withdraws from the interference of the normal market, and it is expected that the pressure of capital outflow will not appear.

In the new era securities, the US debt yield still has a rising space, the future gap between China and the United States may be further narrowed, the dollar index further stronger, the RMB exchange rate continues to bear pressure, but the value of the RMB devaluation pressure is relatively controllable. The different economic cycles of China and the United States have caused the pressure of the RMB to devalue the dollar. We must adopt a coordinated monetary policy, capital control and exchange rate policy to avoid the exchange rate risk. The volatility of the exchange rate may be expanded in the future, which will increase the autonomy of the monetary policy, but it is subject to the prevention of the exchange rate. Risk, monetary policy is difficult to turn.