The last adjustment window of domestic oil price in 2019 will open at 24:00 on December 30. According to the agency's calculation, it is expected that the corresponding increase rate of domestic refined oil price adjustment will be about 240 yuan per ton, equivalent to 0.17 yuan per 92 × gasoline increase.
In the current price adjustment cycle, news such as the decline of U.S. crude oil inventory and the expansion of production reduction by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have been good for the market. International crude oil prices are in a small increase trend of shock, and the crude oil change rate referenced by domestic oil prices continues to be positive.
As of December 26, the comprehensive change rate of crude oil was 5.58%. According to the current price mechanism of refined oil, every 10 working days is a price adjustment cycle. "At present, it is the ninth working day of the price adjustment cycle. If there is no significant change, there is no suspense about the increase." Oil analyst Li Yan said.
In 2019, a total of 25 price adjustments were carried out for domestic refined oil, specifically 14 times of upward adjustment, 7 times of downward adjustment, and four times of grounding. The total price of gasoline increased by 445 yuan / ton, and that of diesel increased by 445 yuan / ton. After this price adjustment, the price adjustment Bureau in 2019 will become "15 up, 7 down and 4 stranded" (including the reduction due to the adjustment of value-added tax rate on March 31).
At present, the price of 92m3 and 95m3 gasoline at Sinopec gas stations in Shandong Province is 6.78 yuan and 7.28 yuan per litre, respectively. The retail price of this round of increase is about 0.17 yuan per litre. In order to save fuel money, private car owners can fill up the fuel tank before Tuesday.
The next round of price adjustment window of domestic oil price will open at 24:00 on January 14, 2020. Looking forward to the future, Li Yan believes that "the favorable factors of the current international crude oil market are still strong, and it is expected that the next round of price adjustment of refined oil will be more likely."
Zhongyu information also believes that under the premise of improving fundamentals, international crude oil prices are expected to remain high in the short term. As the Spring Festival holiday is getting closer and closer, domestic oil prices are supported by the release of downstream demand, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to be strong in the short term.